Ancient DNA | Micronesia | First settlers of Remote Oceania
Who first crossed the open Pacific?
Long before Polynesians reached Hawaii, people sailed across more than 2,000 km of open sea to the Mariana Islands. A few centuries later, others reached Palau. Ancient DNA shows that the two archipelagos were founded by two different peoples: one with essentially no Papuan ancestry, the other already about 40% Papuan-related when it arrived. We tested 175 ancient genomes from Micronesia and Vanuatu in Global25.
Hero image: AI generated illustration of a Latte period village on Saipan around AD 1400, with houses raised on stone pillars topped with capstones, a woman pounding food in a stone mortar and a single-outrigger sailing canoe on the beach. The capstones are rounder and the pillars thicker than most real latte, and clothing, ornaments and the canoe are approximations. It is not a reconstruction of a documented scene and does not portray any real person.
The islands of Remote Oceania were the last large region of the world to be settled by humans. They lie beyond the chain of islands that runs from New Guinea to the Solomons, too far apart to be seen from one another. Reaching them required sailing canoes, navigation skills and the confidence to head into open water without knowing what lay ahead.
The best known chapter of that story belongs to the Lapita people, who reached Vanuatu, Fiji and Tonga about 3,000 years ago, and to their Polynesian descendants. But the first people to cross into Remote Oceania may have sailed further north, to the Mariana Islands of western Micronesia. Ancient DNA now shows that the northern route was not one migration but at least two, by peoples with very different histories.
The longest sea crossing of its time
Archaeologists Mike Carson and Hiro Kurashina reported in 2012 that dates as early as 1500 BC could be confirmed for the first settlement of the Mariana Islands. That made the Marianas a candidate for the earliest settlement of Remote Oceania, earlier than or contemporary with the first Lapita sites. The islands lie more than 2,000 km from any area that was inhabited at the time, which makes this crossing one of the longest known ocean voyages of its era. Decorated pottery links the first settlers to Island Southeast Asia, and many archaeologists look to the Philippines as their starting point.
Palau, about 1,300 km to the south-west of Guam, was settled a little later. The 2026 study discussed below places its first settlement around 3,200 to 3,000 years ago. Central Micronesia, including Pohnpei, Chuuk and Kosrae, was reached later still, about 2,000 years ago.
The Marianas: the only Remote Oceanians without Papuan ancestry
The first ancient genomes from the Marianas came from two individuals buried in Ritidian Beach Cave, in northern Guam, about 2,200 years ago. In 2021, Irina Pugach, Mark Stoneking and colleagues reported in PNAS that their ancestry was linked to the Philippines and that they were closely related to early Lapita individuals from Vanuatu and Tonga. The authors suggested that the Marianas and Polynesia may have been settled from the same source population.
A year later, Yue-Chen Liu, Rosalind Hunter-Anderson, Ron Pinhasi, David Reich and colleagues published genome-wide data from 164 ancient and 112 present-day individuals in Science. They identified five streams of migration into Micronesia: three related to East Asia, one related to Polynesia, and one Papuan stream related to mainland New Guinea, carried mainly by men about 2,500 to 2,000 years ago. Their striking conclusion was that the precolonial ancestry of the Mariana Islanders may derive entirely from East Asian sources, which would make them the only Remote Oceanians without any Papuan ancestry.
Most of these genomes come from the Latte period, after about AD 1000, when houses in the Marianas were raised on pillars of stone topped with capstones. In the public data, 16 of the Latte and earlier genomes from Guam and Saipan are flagged as close relatives of another sampled person: brothers, sisters, a father and son, mothers and daughters. The same study also found that mitochondrial DNA, inherited from mothers, was very different between early Remote Oceanian communities but uniform within each of them. The simplest explanation is matrilocality: women stayed in the community where they grew up, and men moved between islands. As David Reich put it, in the earliest seafarers "matrilocality was the rule".
Where exactly the first Mariana Islanders came from is still debated. After the 2022 study, Rosalind Hunter-Anderson and Joanne Eakin told the Pacific Island Times that the early settlers more likely came from eastern Indonesia, possibly Sulawesi, than directly from the Philippines. The 2026 study adds that the earliest Marianas lineage is a sister group to the Lapita people, and that Latte period individuals carry about 15% of an ancestry related to the first Palauans, which arrived between about 2,400 and 1,700 years ago. The Marianas were not as isolated as their missing Papuan ancestry suggests.
Palau: mixed before it was settled
In April 2026, Liu, Joanne Eakin, Jolie Liston and colleagues, with Palauan co-authors and the Reich and Pinhasi laboratories, published the first ancient genomes from Palau in Cell. Twenty-one individuals passed quality filters, from Ucheliungs Cave and Omedokl Cave in the Rock Islands, from a burial cave at Koror Quarry, and from Ngkeklau on Babeldaob. They span about 2,900 to 500 years ago.
Every one of them carries about 60% East Asian-related and 40% Papuan-related ancestry. Individual Papuan proportions range from about 38 to 45%, and the site averages from 39.6% at Ngkeklau to 43.2% at Ucheliungs. The Papuan component is most closely related to New Guinea Highlanders, not to the peoples of New Britain or the Solomon Islands. It was carried by both sexes: the autosomes show a modest male bias, but the Papuan-related mitochondrial lineage P1 is also present.
The decisive clue is the date of the mixture. In the oldest individual, from Ucheliungs Cave, the admixture between East Asian-related and Papuan-related ancestry is dated to between 3,880 and 3,429 years ago, about 30 generations before he lived. Palau was settled around 3,200 to 3,000 years ago. The mixing therefore happened before the first settlers arrived, somewhere else. The authors point to northern Wallacea or eastern Indonesia, where 2,100 year old individuals from Morotai carry a similar mix, about 70% East Asian-related and 30% Papuan-related. They consider Taiwan only a distant relative of this ancestry, and the Admiralty Islands an unlikely source.
Then very little changed. The same 60 to 40 mix persists for about 2,800 to 2,900 years, which the authors describe as the longest genetic continuity in Remote Oceania. The Papuan share declines slightly over time, by up to about 10% of its value, and later individuals show small shifts attributed to continued migration. Present-day Palauans carry admixture dated to about 2,800 to 2,000 years ago, a sign of these later arrivals.
Two first peoples. The Marianas and Palau are neighbours on the map, but their founders came from different worlds. The Marianas were settled by people with essentially no Papuan ancestry. Palau was settled by people who had already mixed with Papuan-related groups in eastern Indonesia centuries before they set out.
Vanuatu: the opposite path
The south-west Pacific followed a third path. In 2016, Pontus Skoglund, Cosimo Posth, David Reich and colleagues showed in Nature that the first Lapita settlers of Vanuatu and Tonga, about 3,000 years ago, had little to no Papuan ancestry. In 2018, Posth and colleagues reported in Nature Ecology and Evolution that Papuan ancestry arrived in Vanuatu from about 2,500 years ago, in repeated, sex-biased migrations from the Bismarck Archipelago. In present-day ni-Vanuatu it almost completely replaced the Lapita-related ancestry, yet the Austronesian languages of the first settlers survived.
In August 2026, Michal Feldman, Cosimo Posth and colleagues published 72 ancient individuals from Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga and the Solomon Islands in Cell, including the first ancient genomes from Fiji. Papuan-related ancestry appears in Vanuatu as early as 2,700 years ago and in Fiji about 500 years later, partly from neighbouring archipelagos. The authors found that the Southeast Asian-related dispersal spread faster than the Papuan-related one. In a Fijian community about 1,500 years old, a five-generation family tree revealed a kin group with a distinct ancestry profile that may have followed practices aimed at keeping wealth or status within the family.
Pohnpei and Nan Madol
The 2022 study also included people buried at Nan Madol, on Pohnpei in Central Micronesia, excavated in 1984 under the direction of J. Stephen Athens. Nan Madol is a complex of more than a hundred artificial islets built of basalt and coral, the seat of the Saudeleur rulers. A 2024 study by Chuan-Chou Shen, Felicia Beardsley, Mark McCoy and colleagues in PNAS Nexus dated its construction to two main phases between the 10th and the early 15th centuries, and linked its decline to sea-level change and the rising cost of maintaining its seawalls. Unlike the Marianas, Central Micronesians carry Papuan-related ancestry.
Our test: what Global25 sees
The public Global25 files include 122 ancient genomes from Guam and Saipan with coverage of at least 15%, 16 from Palau, 11 from Pohnpei and 26 from Vanuatu and Tonga. We checked scale compatibility: the average of 61 dated Latte period genomes from Guam lies only 1.5 units from the published Global25 average for the same group (distances multiplied by 1,000). A single genome of this quality lies about 19 to 20 units from the average of its own group.
We modelled each genome as a mix of an East Asian-related source, the Kankanaey of the Philippine Cordillera, and a Papuan-related source. Because the published studies disagree on which Papuan population is closest, we used two: New Guinea Highlanders, and the Baining of New Britain. The East Asian and Papuan sources are 620 to 770 units apart, so the two-source models are very well conditioned (condition number 1.5 to 1.6). We also ran a three-source model with both Papuan proxies (condition number 31).
The contrast is sharp. Guam and Saipan come out at 1 to 2% Papuan-related ancestry with every model, the Lapita genomes of Vanuatu and Tonga at 2 to 4%, all within the detection floor. Palau comes out at 37 to 50% depending on the Papuan proxy, Morotai at 32 to 39%, Pohnpei at 27 to 33%, and Vanuatu after 2,500 BP at 72 to 90%. Present-day Tongans sit at 26 to 32%.
For Palau, the published estimates fall inside our range. With the Highland proxy, the 16 Palauan genomes come out at 36 to 41%, a little below the published 38 to 45%; with three sources, at 41 to 50%, a little above. The oldest individual, I41048, gives 40.6% with the Highland proxy, against 45% in the published analysis, and I43883, the lowest in the published data at about 38%, gives 37.0%. The small decline over time also appears: from about 40% in the two oldest genomes to 37% in the latest one, about AD 1300.
Seen through time, the three histories separate clearly. In Guam and Saipan, all 122 genomes fall between 0 and 7.5%, over nearly 2,500 years. In Palau, every genome falls between 41 and 50% in the three-source model, from about 2,800 to 600 years ago. In Vanuatu, the Lapita genomes sit near zero, and from about 2,600 BP almost every genome carries 60 to 100% Papuan-related ancestry. The 11 genomes from Pohnpei cluster between 29 and 32%.
To know what counts as zero, we built synthetic genomes with known amounts of Papuan-related ancestry, added real noise taken from 126 single ancient genomes, and ran the same model 500 times. A genome with no Papuan ancestry came back at no more than about 5 to 7%, depending on the run. A true 5% returned 2 to 11%, a true 10% returned 7 to 17%, and a true 40% returned 38 to 45%. The two highest values in the Marianas, 5.2 and 7.5%, belong to two relatives from Saipan, at the edge of the floor. With 122 genomes, a few values at the edge are expected by chance. For averages of 41 to 63 genomes, as for Guam and Saipan, the floor drops to about 1%.
Where did Palau's founders come from?
We then asked which groups are closest to the average of 18 ancient Palauans.
The closest present-day populations are all in eastern Indonesia: the Yamdena of the Tanimbar Islands (15 units), the Tetum of Timor (19) and the Fordata, also of Tanimbar (22). Present-day western Micronesians follow at 20 units, as expected if today's Palauans descend from the ancient population. The Philippines and Taiwan, by contrast, lie 240 to 295 units away, as do the ancient Latte people of Saipan.
Caution is needed here. The Tanimbar and Timor populations carry a similar mix of East Asian-related and Papuan-related ancestry, so part of the match reflects similar proportions rather than shared origins. The 2,100 year old Morotai genomes, the published reference for northern Wallacea, sit further away at 51 units, because their Papuan share is lower. The direction, however, agrees with the published study: Palau's founders belong to the world of eastern Indonesia, not to the Philippines.
Pohnpei looks south
The Nan Madol genomes are closest to present-day Tongans (14 units) and to present-day Central Micronesians (19 units), and far from both Palau (90 units) and the Marianas. Like Polynesians, they combine about two thirds East Asian-related ancestry with about a third Papuan-related ancestry. Global25 cannot say from which island their ancestors set out, but it places them closer to Polynesians than to their western Micronesian neighbours.
Three traps in the data
Trap 1: the Papuan total is stable, its source is not
The 2026 study found Palau's Papuan component closest to New Guinea Highlanders. Global25 gives a different answer that depends on an unrelated choice: the East Asian-related proxy.
With the Kankanaey as East Asian-related source, Global25 prefers New Britain: 37% Baining against 8% Highlanders. With Iron Age Taiwan the split becomes 28 to 15%, and with the Dusun of Borneo it reverses, 19 to 22%. The total Papuan-related share barely moves, from 41 to 45%. In simulations with perfect sources, Global25 can tell the two Papuan proxies apart, so the instability comes from the real data: none of the available proxies matches the true sources. The published f-statistics, based on far more markers, are the reference here.
Trap 2: the Marianas match every unmixed Austronesian population
The Latte people of Saipan are closest to the Kankanaey and other Igorot of the Philippine Cordillera (17 to 18 units), then to the Yami of Orchid Island (23), the Amis of Taiwan (24 to 26), Iron Age Taiwan (28) and the Lapita genomes of Vanuatu (29). This looks like support for a Philippine origin, but it is not decisive. All these populations carry the same East Asian-related ancestry with little or no Papuan admixture, and the Kankanaey are simply the purest example in the dataset. Global25 confirms that the Marianas are unmixed. It cannot trace their route, and no genomes from Sulawesi of the right period are available to test the alternative.
Trap 3: small samples and missing sex chromosomes
The Lapita genomes from Vanuatu and Tonga have low coverage (11 to 21%), as do the oldest genomes from Guam (7 to 22%). The Palauan sample is 16 genomes from four sites, and the Pohnpei sample 11 genomes from Nan Madol and nearby Na Island. Global25 also summarises only the autosomes, so it cannot see the sex bias that the published studies detect with the X chromosome, the mitochondrial DNA and the Y chromosome. Matrilocality in the Marianas and the male bias of the Papuan streams rest entirely on the published analyses.
What this means
The open Pacific was not settled by a single wave of seafarers. The first people to reach the Marianas, about 3,500 years ago, carried essentially no Papuan ancestry, and their descendants kept it that way for more than two millennia, while still receiving some ancestry from the west. Palau was settled shortly afterwards by a different people, who had mixed with Papuan-related groups in eastern Indonesia centuries before they sailed, and whose genetic profile then barely changed for nearly 3,000 years. Further south, the Lapita settlers of Vanuatu started out like the Mariana Islanders, but within a few centuries Papuan-related ancestry from the Bismarck Archipelago had replaced most of theirs.
Three neighbouring corners of Remote Oceania, three different demographic histories. In each case, the language and much of the culture came with the East Asian-related seafarers. The genes tell a more varied story.
Key points
- The Mariana Islands were settled about 3,500 years ago, after a crossing of more than 2,000 km, one of the longest sea voyages of its time.
- Ancient Mariana Islanders carry essentially no Papuan ancestry: about 1% in our Global25 test of 122 genomes, within the detection floor.
- Every ancient Palauan, over about 2,800 years, carries about 40% Papuan-related ancestry. The mixing is dated to 3,900 to 3,400 years ago, before Palau was settled.
- Palau's closest present-day relatives in Global25 live in eastern Indonesia, in the Tanimbar Islands and Timor, in line with the published Wallacean origin.
- In Vanuatu, Lapita settlers with almost no Papuan ancestry were largely replaced from about 2,600 years ago; Pohnpei sits closest to Polynesians.
- Global25 measures the Papuan share well but cannot identify its source: the answer flips with the East Asian proxy.
Global25 coordinates used in this article
The model sources, the main ancient groups and five of the best preserved Palauan genomes. They can be pasted directly into the Vahaduo tool.
Source_Philippines_Kankanaey,0.018158,-0.445672,-0.044698,-0.067907,0.143206,0.064225,-0.003189,-0.017494,-0.028682,-0.021972,0.049327,0.003961,-0.006491,-0.003866,0.013068,0.007476,-0.005296,0.006491,0.011947,-0.016651,0.004825,-0.034953,-0.002571,-0.008331,-0.070607
Source_Papuan_Highland,-0.043578,-0.238650,-0.261722,0.307912,0.210325,-0.516386,0.001914,0.005769,-0.043914,-0.012184,-0.015821,0.001499,0.001444,-0.003224,0.001900,-0.002444,-0.002105,-0.000109,-0.000126,-0.004860,0.001765,0.004381,-0.000475,-0.000551,0.004944
Source_NewBritain_Baining,-0.038730,-0.237687,-0.226153,0.250547,0.168242,-0.380730,0.001936,0.005684,-0.022525,-0.003098,-0.001671,-0.001775,0.003560,-0.003238,-0.001796,-0.001298,0.002934,-0.001050,-0.000652,0.001392,-0.003103,-0.001900,-0.002760,-0.003190,-0.005184
Guam_Latte_Naton,0.013966,-0.443851,-0.051079,-0.064718,0.146606,0.061599,-0.006282,-0.010578,-0.023205,-0.027046,0.057591,0.005241,-0.006678,-0.003624,0.013887,0.008827,-0.003241,0.006789,0.010916,-0.013256,0.004345,-0.034497,-0.009621,-0.008580,-0.063861
Saipan_Latte_Anaguan,0.016185,-0.445372,-0.051187,-0.063615,0.145018,0.060030,-0.005772,-0.010080,-0.023351,-0.027069,0.053525,0.005377,-0.006131,-0.004031,0.014125,0.010177,-0.004395,0.006548,0.010543,-0.015254,0.004264,-0.033471,-0.008916,-0.009014,-0.063984
Guam_Unai_Naton,0.005692,-0.431600,-0.039975,-0.064438,0.142488,0.057730,-0.003407,-0.015461,-0.022089,-0.035992,0.055212,0.002173,-0.003567,-0.008119,0.012690,0.003978,-0.005868,0.008868,0.004337,-0.016633,0.007861,-0.033571,-0.007764,-0.011990,-0.067000
Pohnpei_NanMadol_Saudeleur,-0.001138,-0.389673,-0.107533,0.035207,0.159678,-0.088966,-0.003525,-0.004681,-0.025595,-0.018328,0.041200,0.005609,-0.006031,-0.002241,0.009307,0.005739,0.000875,0.003457,0.005531,-0.007450,0.001283,-0.025225,-0.006215,-0.011189,-0.047746
Indonesia_Morotai_TanjungPinang,-0.009390,-0.367368,-0.115305,0.055475,0.163415,-0.113299,-0.003877,-0.002538,-0.024287,-0.020137,0.035604,0.004796,-0.004757,-0.007776,0.004716,0.005768,-0.002282,0.001964,0.009019,-0.006097,0.000374,-0.022845,-0.006563,-0.009309,-0.044577
Vanuatu_Lapita_2900BP,0.012293,-0.423882,-0.045330,-0.063631,0.146920,0.056838,-0.006815,-0.011077,-0.017385,-0.018588,0.058070,0.006444,-0.009514,0.001679,0.017155,0.008910,-0.004694,0.007601,0.008271,-0.012581,0.005016,-0.026486,-0.002366,-0.012532,-0.062054
Vanuatu_1800CE,-0.038700,-0.255660,-0.205436,0.216411,0.163877,-0.338434,-0.001204,0.002654,-0.024645,-0.009043,0.001664,-0.000749,0.002973,-0.001686,-0.000034,0.000663,-0.001499,0.000475,0.004305,0.001235,-0.001201,-0.007419,-0.002295,-0.004021,-0.012978
Tongan,0.000569,-0.383362,-0.104525,0.030577,0.157876,-0.081854,-0.001527,-0.004077,-0.027781,-0.018467,0.040759,0.006794,-0.004460,-0.001651,0.005836,0.007160,-0.002629,0.005574,0.006348,-0.009942,0.002517,-0.023144,-0.003636,-0.007069,-0.048040
Yamdena_Tanimbar,-0.008252,-0.355689,-0.134538,0.078974,0.166108,-0.147115,-0.002350,-0.012115,-0.027969,-0.015946,0.028459,0.001836,-0.004200,-0.001617,0.007770,0.004674,-0.001010,0.005258,0.006128,-0.005502,-0.001591,-0.018393,-0.003174,-0.005844,-0.035206
Palau_UcheliungsCave_I41048,-0.010244,-0.342233,-0.130484,0.093347,0.168955,-0.160083,-0.001175,-0.002769,-0.027815,-0.013850,0.028256,0.004796,-0.008920,-0.001651,0.015472,0.000265,-0.008214,0.005954,0.012444,-0.003502,0.003494,-0.026338,-0.001849,-0.012411,-0.036164
Palau_UcheliungsCave_I41049,-0.005691,-0.355435,-0.137272,0.083334,0.167416,-0.161757,-0.004700,-0.006000,-0.028838,-0.021139,0.029879,0.003147,-0.001635,-0.004266,0.003664,0.007558,0.005607,0.004307,-0.000126,-0.000375,0.005740,-0.021887,-0.005423,-0.009881,-0.035566
Palau_KororQuarry_I43894,-0.014797,-0.363560,-0.126713,0.078812,0.157568,-0.143071,-0.007050,-0.002538,-0.030065,-0.020775,0.029068,0.000000,-0.005798,-0.001514,0.003664,0.010607,-0.002347,0.006714,0.005405,-0.007879,0.003244,-0.025472,-0.011339,-0.003976,-0.040475
Palau_OmedoklCave_I41043,-0.002276,-0.361528,-0.124450,0.072675,0.162492,-0.137493,0.003760,-0.004615,-0.025565,-0.017312,0.032315,0.006145,-0.000743,-0.008533,0.003664,0.007425,-0.003129,0.003547,0.010182,-0.005378,0.004991,-0.018795,-0.003821,-0.004579,-0.037242
Palau_OmedoklCave_I41045,-0.017073,-0.356451,-0.128598,0.071706,0.160338,-0.144186,0.000235,-0.007384,-0.022498,-0.020046,0.026794,0.001049,-0.010555,-0.002890,0.008007,0.006364,-0.000522,-0.002787,0.005405,-0.004752,0.001996,-0.025596,-0.003204,-0.002169,-0.033769
References
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- Archaeology Carson MT, Kurashina H (2012). Re-envisioning long-distance Oceanic migration: early dates in the Mariana Islands. World Archaeology 44(3): 409 to 435. doi.org/10.1080/00438243.2012.727342
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- Press release Harvard Gazette (2022). Research on genomic history of remote Pacific islands yields surprising findings. news.harvard.edu
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- Press Pacific Island Times (2022). Ancient DNA analysis shows Chamorus are descendants of early settlers from Indonesia. pacificislandtimes.com
- Data Global25 PCA coordinates by Davidski, and the Moriopoulos 2026 collection of Global25 coordinates.